'What Do You Want?'

What You Need To Know

Today’s posts that caught my eye:

1. Riveting WSJ piece breaks down the airport battle that proved Putin was wrong to think Ukraine would fall quickly, while NYT video shows the reality of what’s still happening.

2. Many of the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection trials seem to blend together for me. A current one stands out for its emotional tension: The case is based on a then-18-year-old son turning in his father to the FBI: “Two weeks before Jackson Reffitt’s father traveled to Washington and took part in the U.S. Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, the 18-year-old sat in his bedroom in his parents’ Wylie, Texas, home and searched his phone for information about the FBI’s tip line.”

3. As Google and Twitter bring employees back to the office, a fascinating piece on whether San Francisco is falling behind exactly because it’s a tech hub: “White-collar employees embracing remote work have decamped to less pricey areas, raising the question of if they’ll ever come back.”

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The World

Overview: Europe’s largest nuclear power plant caught fire after Russian forces shelled the site in southeast Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials, raising fears of a catastrophe. But the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog soon said the blaze had not affected “essential” equipment. Meanwhile, Russian forces laid siege to urban areas across Ukraine, hitting apartment buildings, pharmacies and a hospital, as the Kremlin’s grinding offensive surrounded southern cities and drove thousands of refugees toward western borders. At least one million people have fled the country so far, and a million more have abandoned their homes for Ukrainian cities farther from the fighting. A second round of Russian and Ukrainian talks in Belarus made little progress toward ending the conflict but agreed on establishing “humanitarian corridors” out of areas of intense fighting, with the possibility of cease-fires to enable civilians to use them. (Washington Post, New York Times)

max seddon @maxseddon

Zelensky to Putin: "Good Lord, what do you want? Leave our land. If you don't want to leave now, sit down with me at the negotiating table. But not from 30 meters away, like with Macron and Scholz. Sit down with me and talk. What are you afraid of? We're no threat to anyone."

Putin thought Ukraine would fall quickly. An airport battle proved him wrong. Russia wanted to use Hostomel Airport outside Kyiv to bring troops directly to the capital. A band of Ukrainian soldiers fought to keep the Russians from using the landing strip, forcing them to move soldiers and supplies over land. Machine-gun fire tore past Anatoliy Kharchenko and cut down several fellow Ukrainian paratroopers as they fought their way through the darkness toward Hostomel Airport. The crack Ukrainian unit was trying to thwart Vladimir Putin’s plan for a rapid takeover of Kyiv some 20 miles away. But their mission was going badly. Elite Russian airborne troops had landed in helicopters hours earlier on the first day of Russia’s war against Ukraine. If they could hold the airfield, Russia would be able to fly in hundreds of soldiers and move rapidly to seize the Ukrainian capital, part of Mr. Putin’s plan to force a quick capitulation. (Wall Street Journal)

Global commodity prices are on track for the biggest weekly rally in more than 50 years and Europe’s natural gas prices have hit a new record, as the war in Ukraine triggers “exceptional moves” in raw materials from oil to wheat. The S&P GSCI index, a broad barometer for the price of global raw materials, has jumped 16% this week, leaving it on track for the sharpest rise on records dating back to 1970. It is now at its highest level since 2008. US oil prices also hit the highest level since 2008 on Thursday. Wheat futures in Chicago shot above $12 a bushel. Meanwhile, Asia stocks slid to 16-month low. (Financial Times, Reuters)

• If Russian currency reserves aren’t really money, the world is in for a shock: Sanctions have shown that currency reserves accumulated by central banks can be taken away. With China taking note, this may reshape geopolitics, economic management and even the international role of the U.S. dollar. (Wall Street Journal)

Running a siege economy: Russia prepares to endure pain of sanctions. Economists expect the sanctions to push Russia into a deep recession while driving inflation even higher this year, but do not think the economy will fail to function as long as the political will in the Kremlin exists to soften the impact of the measures. (Financial Times)

Following Ukraine’s plea to join the EU as it battles Russia’s invasion, Georgia and Moldova submitted their own applications to join the bloc. The two countries are highly unlikely to join the union any time soon but their applications reflected their deep alarm at Moscow’s war on Ukraine and a desire to move closer politically to the EU. (Politico EU)

Accenture axed its entire 2,300-person business in Russia while McKinsey and Boston Consulting Group moved to suspend all client work there. (Financial Times)

• SAP will be “stopping business in Russia aligned with sanctions” and pausing sales of products and services in Russia. Meanwhile, Reddit banned links to Russian state media outlets across its entire site for all users worldwide and ads that either originate from Russia or target the country. Spotify closed its office in Russia “indefinitely” and removes all content from RT and Sputnik in the EU and other markets, except for Russia. Airbnb is suspending all operations in Russia and Belarus. (The Register, Engadget, Variety)

China declared its Russia friendship had “no limits.” It’s having second thoughts: Xi Jinping wanted Vladimir Putin to join in a united front against the U.S., and he got it Feb. 4. Now the Ukraine war threatens to undo Beijing’s yearslong effort to become a world leader. In Beijing, the ripple effects of a move that may cost China dearly are now sinking in, say the officials and advisers. Some officials say they are fearful of the consequences of getting so close to Russia at the expense of other relationships. Already, many politicians from Washington to Brussels have grouped Beijing together with Moscow as a new “axis”—a term giving Western alliances more reason to disengage from China and form closer ties among themselves. (Wall Street Journal)

• If China tries to help Russia evade sanctions in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, it will face countermeasures, said State Department counsellor Derek Chollet. (South China Morning Post)

The New York Times @nytimes

Video verified by The New York Times shows the bombardment of Chernihiv, Ukraine, on Thursday. As smoke cleared from the attack — which hit near apartments, pharmacies and a hospital — people are seen running in the street. nyti.ms/3sE87XD