'Tidal Wave'
What You Need To Know
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Welcome to our weekend edition, a combination of the world, profiles, and good reads that you might not see during the week.
Subscriber benefit (today, 3 pm ET): What Happens Next, an extraordinary, invitation-only weekly call with academics and experts across economics, industry, medicine, history, literature, and more.
Today’s speakers include:
Leo Melamed, Former Chairman of the Board of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Holocaust survivor leads the CME through new product development: introducing equity, currency, and interest rate futures, ending open outcry, and using cash settlement for indices
Listen & Register: Listen to today’s call here.
The World
Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) said that he could not support Democrats’ roughly $2 trillion bill to overhaul the country’s health care, education, immigration, climate and tax laws, dealing a potentially fatal blow to the final piece of President Biden’s economic agenda. “I can’t move forward. I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation, I just can’t,” Manchin said on Fox News Sunday, citing the impacts of rising prices, the arrival of a new coronavirus variant and other domestic and international challenges. “I tried everything humanly possible,” Manchin added of his negotiations with Democrats including Biden. “I can’t get there … This is a no.” (Washington Post)
'Tidal wave': Omicron could put U.S. COVID-19 surge into overdrive. (Reuters)
A growing body of preliminary research suggests the Covid vaccines used in most of the world offer almost no defense against becoming infected by the highly contagious Omicron variant. All vaccines still seem to provide a significant degree of protection against serious illness from Omicron, which is the most crucial goal. But only the Pfizer and Moderna shots, when reinforced by a booster, appear to have success at stopping infections, and these vaccines are unavailable in most of the world. The other shots — including those from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and vaccines manufactured in China and Russia — do little to nothing to stop the spread of Omicron, early research shows. And because most countries have built their inoculation programs around these vaccines, the gap could have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic. (New York Times)
America is not ready for Omicron: The new variant poses a far graver threat at the collective level than the individual one—the kind of test that the U.S. has repeatedly failed. (The Atlantic)
As omicron drives a new phase of the pandemic, many are looking to Denmark — and particularly the government institute devoted to testing, surveillance and modeling — for warnings about what to expect. The emerging answer — even in this highly vaccinated, wealthy northern European country — is dire. For all the defenses built over the last year, the virus is about to sprint out of control, and scientists here expect a similar pattern in much of the world. (Washington Post)
The Netherlands became the first EU country to re-enter a strict nationwide lockdown, that will shutter swaths of the economy until at least mid-January. Professional sports events will take place without crowds and homes can invite a maximum of four guests during the Christmas period, to be reduced to two after the holidays. (Financial Times)
CNN is closing its U.S. offices to all nonessential employees. (Reuters)
Virginia Democrats are divided over whether to make an 11th-hour push to strengthen abortion rights in the state as they prepare to hand over control of the Executive Mansion and state House to Republicans. Abortion rights activists and some House Democrats are calling for the General Assembly to gather in special session before Republicans assume the majority in the House of Delegates on Jan. 12 and Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin (R) takes office three days later. Their goal is to codify Roe v. Wade in state law. (Washington Post)
The crisis engulfing Boris Johnson’s premiership deepened when an important Brexit ally quit over concerns about a series of core policy decisions. Lord Frost, who only a year ago celebrated Britain’s departure from the EU with the prime minister, will leave his post immediately. Frost formally tendered his resignation in a letter expressing concerns about the government’s “direction of travel.” (The Times)
Hong Kong government efforts and last-ditch campaigning by candidates were struggling today to boost turnout in an overhauled "patriots"-only legislative election, the first under a sweeping new security law. After eight hours of voting, turnout was more than 10 percentage points below the previous Legislative Council election five years ago. (Reuters)
Profiles & Reads
Snowless winters are already here, and the consequences will go far beyond shuttered ski resorts: Parts of the Mountain West could be nearly snowless for years at a time in just a few decades. Across the Central Rockies, it’s been an unseasonably warm, dry year. Denver smashed the record for its latest first measurable winter snow. Colorado ski resorts delayed opening because temperatures were too high to even produce fake snow. And Salt Lake City was entirely snowless through November, for only the second time since 1976. These snowless scenarios, while still an exception, are set to become much more common as early as 2040, according to a paper published in Nature Reviews Earth and Environment. Drawing from years of snowpack observations, the researchers project that in 35 to 60 years, the Mountain West will be nearly snowless for years at a time if worldwide greenhouse gas emissions are not rapidly reduced. This could impact everything from wildfires to drinking water. (High Country News)
Elon Musk: Interview with FT’s Person of the Year. The controversial Tesla chief executive has triggered a historic shift in the auto industry towards electric vehicles. Armed with 66.3m followers, he has used his hyperactive Twitter account to promote dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that initially started as a joke and whose name is a homage to an internet meme featuring a Shiba Inu dog. He has also continued his goading of regulators, including the SEC, despite paying a $20m fine in 2018 after the securities regulator accused him of committing securities fraud with his tweets. Yet behind the noise, the speculative frenzy and the apparent flouting of rules, there is an achievement of great substance. The FT is naming Elon Musk its Person of the Year because he has triggered a historic shift in the world’s auto industry towards electric vehicles. Even if Tesla were to somehow collapse next year — something that, unlike two years ago, no one is now predicting — Musk would have transformed one of the world’s most important industries in ways that could have profound implications for governments, investors — and for the climate. In an era often defined by new technology, Musk is staking a claim to be the most genuinely innovative entrepreneur of his generation. (Financial Times)
How Exercise Affects Metabolism and Weight Loss: A new analysis of data from “The Biggest Loser” highlights the complex ways the body compensates when we drop pounds. Many of us remember “The Biggest Loser,” the somewhat notorious reality television show that ran for more than a decade starting in 2004, in which contestants competed feverishly to drop massive amounts of weight over a short period of time. One of the biggest lessons of the show appeared to be that extreme exercise, along with draconian calorie restriction, would lead to enormous weight loss. Media coverage of the contestants years later, though, seemed to tell a different story, of weight regain and slowed metabolisms and the futility of attempting long-term weight loss. Now a new scientific analysis of the show and its aftermath, published last month in the journal Obesity, suggests many beliefs about “The Biggest Loser” may be misconceptions. The analysis tries to untangle what really happened to the contestants’ metabolisms and why some of them kept off weight better than others. It also looks into the complex role of exercise and whether staying physically active helped the contestants keep their weight under control for years, or not. (New York Times)
Ben Thompson on The Great Bifurcation: “Where I disagree is with the idea that the physical world and the digital world are increasingly “being overlaid and coming together”; in fact, I think the opposite is happening: the physical world and digital world are increasingly bifurcating… I noted above that the physical and digital worlds are bifurcating, and this is happening to tech as well. Yesterday Elon Musk was named TIME’s 2021 Person of the Year, and while he is known for his tweets about Dogecoin and on-and-off-again support of Bitcoin, his biggest contributions to the world — electrical cars and reusable rockets — are very much physical. In fact, you could make the case that Tesla and SpaceX aren’t tech companies at all, but rather another example of tech-first companies set on remaking industries that only ever saw computers as a tool, not the foundation. The Metaverse, in contrast, is not about eating the world; it’s about creating an entirely new one, from entertainment to community to money to identity. If Elon Musk wants to go to the moon, Mark Zuckerberg wants to create entirely new moons in digital space. This is a place where LLCs make no sense, where regulations are an after-thought, easily circumvented even if they exist. This is a place with no need for traditional money, or traditional art; the native solution is obviously superior. To put it another way, “None of this real world stuff has any digital world value” — the critique goes both ways. In the end, the most important connection between the Metaverse and the physical world will be you: right now you are in the Metaverse, reading this Article; perhaps you will linger on Twitter or get started with your remote work. And then you’ll stand up from your computer, or take off your headset, eat dinner and tuck in your kids, aware that their bifurcated future will be fundamentally different from your unitary past.” (Stratechery)
I Gave My Mom a Crypto Wallet: A Simple Guide to NFTs, Blockchain and More: If you wince when you hear the term ‘nonfungible token,’ fear not. We created an NFT to help explain this whole crypto revolution in a clear, easy-to-understand way. Don’t know what an NFT—aka “nonfungible token”—is either? You better find out. Why? Because someone as crazy as me might give you one. Or a better reason: They’re everywhere. Macy’s auctioned digital floats as NFTs at the Thanksgiving Day Parade. Robert Mondavi Winery is selling a limited run of wine in fancy Limoges porcelain bottles tied to NFTs. Reese Witherspoon is crazy about NFTs, especially ones made by women. Snoop Dogg is building a virtual NFT house—and people are spending as much as they would on a real house to “live” next to him. I know. You’re so confused you want to hide under your real bed in your real house, clutching your real teddy bear. I’ve been there. This world of mystical items was baffling to me: Why would I pay for a goofy GIF I can already text to a friend? And why do some of these cost more than a Fabergé egg? I realized the best way to understand this—and to explain it—was to roll up my sleeves and make an NFT. In other words, I turned my son’s pretty fungible construction-paper-and-googly-eyes unicorn into a nonfungible token of my esteem for my mom. I’m not suggesting you try this at home. But I am encouraging you to read the five steps I took, so you too can make sense of NFT fever. (Wall Street Journal)
Listen, Watch, Read
I’m introducing this new periodic feature to the Weekender — a recommended podcast, video & book. Let me know what you think (and send me your own suggestions) by replying to this email.
Listen & Read: By now we know what went wrong in the response to the most devastating pandemic in a century. “A Shot to Save the World: The Inside Story of the Life-or-Death Race for a Covid-19 Vaccine” by award winning Wall Street Journal reporter and bestselling author Gregory Zuckerman is the untold story of what went right.
I spoke with Greg here.
Watch: Lists:
The 50 best films of 2021 in the US. No. 1 is “The Power of the Dog”: Jane Campion’s superb gothic western is a mysterious and menacing psychodrama about two warring brothers (Benedict Cumberbatch and Jesse Plemons) on a ranch in 20s Montana. (The Guardian)
The 16 Best TV Shows of 2021: The year’s most distinct and worthwhile series. (The Atlantic)
The 10 Best Films of 2021: Movies that affirm the vitality of the medium, no matter the size of the screen. (The Atlantic)
Read: Here’s a great use of social media — an editor at NPR’s WBUR is using Twitter to collect book recommendations: “I'm working on a Twitter thread of great books and audiobooks to carry us through the end of the year. So, please share on Twitter or reply back to this email to let me know what you're reading or listening to, and why you like it. Think of it as a public service.” (WBUR)
Good News
A must-read obit: ‘The bawdy, fertile, redheaded matriarch has kicked it’ — son’s hilarious obituary goes viral. A son wrote a loving and unusual 1,000-word tribute to Renay Mandel Corren, who died in El Paso, Texas at age 84: “A plus-sized Jewish lady redneck died in El Paso on Saturday.… Because she was my mother, the death of zaftig good-time gal Renay Corren at the impossible old age of 84 is newsworthy to me, and I treat it with the same respect and reverence she had for, well, nothing. A more disrespectful, trash-reading, talking and watching woman in NC, FL or TX was not to be found. Hers was an itinerant, much-lived life, a Yankee Florida liberal Jewish Tough Gal who bowled 'em in Japan, rolled 'em in North Carolina and was a singularly unique parent. Often frustrated by the stifling, conservative culture of the South, Renay turned her voracious mind to the home front, becoming a model stay at home parent, a supermom, really, just the perfect PTA lady, volunteer, amateur baker and-AHHAHAA HA! HA! HA! Just kidding, y'all! Renay - Rosie to her friends, and this was a broad who never met a stranger - worked double shifts with Doreen, ate a ton of carbs with Bernie, and could occasionally be stirred to stew some stuffed cabbage for the kids. She played cards like a shark, bowled and played cribbage like a pro, and laughed with the boys until the wee hours, long after the last pin dropped.” (Fayetteville Observer, The Guardian)
The University of Houston suffered a tough loss the other night at Alabama. Some Houston staff and players kicked the trash over on their way off the court. Jamal Shead followed and showed not only what it means to be a teammate, but simply a good person. Watch video here.
Holiday gift special:
$49 for year one (50% off regular price)
Still have folks on your gift list? Why not give a gift that reminds your recipient of you for a whole year?