Nate Cohn: NY Times’ “The Upshot,” on Data, Forecasting Models & Politics

nyt-upshot-logo-finalForget the Koch Brothers or Super PACs or even President Obama. The most-watched player in the 2014 Midterms just might be a computer program called LEO.

LEO is the always-on, data-crunching, poll-adjusting Senate forecasting model used by the New York Times. Each day LEO takes the latest polls and historical data from around the country, blends in other information like fundraising and national polling, and then simulates all 36 Senate races – 250,000 times. And from that, each day LEO speaks about which party will win the Midterm’s grand prize – U.S. Senate control.

So following several big weeks of primary voting, what does LEO have to say… and why should we believe it?

Nate Cohn is a reporter at the New York Times’ new hot spot – The Upshot – where he covers elections, polling and demographics.

Listen here at Political Wire.

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1 Comment

  1. cristian david

     /  June 10, 2014

    Hi Chris,

    I didn’t want to post this in the comments section, but some of the concerns were about turnout. I believe it has to do with the relevance of the candidates. When the only candidates are corporate drones, voting becomes meaningless. I guess the two-party system makes it easier for big money to cover all (both) bases. As soon as people like Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich or Ralph Nader show up everyone panics and media blacks them out / tries to discredit them. I wish Elizabeth Warren ran in 2016 :-).

    Take care, cris


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